000
ABNT20 KNHC 011730
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI OCT 1 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES.  SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THERE ARE NO
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH.  REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA. 

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN