000
ABNT20 KNHC 010547
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI OCT 1 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AND COMPLEX AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH 
TWO TROPICAL WAVES...EXTENDS FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES EASTWARD 
INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA MAY BE FORMING NEAR THIS ACTIVITY.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE MOVES WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE... 
40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN HONDURAS
ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA TO HISPANIOLA IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THERE REMAINS NO SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...AND HISPANIOLA.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART