000
ABNT20 KNHC 121134
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN SEP 12 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 1230 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL 
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH.  THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  REGARDLESS
OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA AND CUBA DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.  

SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT
315 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS
CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
APPEARS TO BE FORMING.  IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...ADVISORIES
WILL BE INITIATED LATER THIS MORNING...AND WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.  THERE
IS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST 
OF BERMUDA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY. 
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY BEFORE IT IS ABSORBED
BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN