000
ABNT20 KNHC 111736
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT SEP 11 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 1030 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.  REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.  

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER-AIR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE AREA NEAR THE
WEST COAST OF AFRICA HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS.  SURFACE PRESSURES ARE QUITE LOW...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  THERE IS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN