000
ABNT20 KNHC 041746
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT SEP 4 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM EARL...LOCATED ABOUT 30 MILES SOUTH OF CHARLOTTETOWN PRINCE
EDWARD ISLAND.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
GASTON CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD RE-FORM IN THIS AREA AT ANY TIME. THERE
IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
ABOUT 10 MPH.

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. 
SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE IF IT REMAINS OVER
WATER. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF
AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION.  DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BE SLOW TO OCCUR.   THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE