000
ABNT20 KNHC 161740
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON AUG 16 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIVE...IS LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...AND HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE EARLIER
TODAY.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE MOVING
INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM. 
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS
OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COAST THROUGH TUESDAY.  SEE
STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN