000
ABNT20 KNHC 091137
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 9 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 950 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS RECENTLY
DEVELOPED CLOSER TO THE CENTER...AND ANY SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS COULD RESULT IN
THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A BROAD SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA IS PRODUCING A LARGE
AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO
THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. 
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THOUGH CONDITIONS COULD
BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE