000
ABNT20 KNHC 051141
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU AUG 5 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN...A LOW PRESSURE AREA...IS
LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.  SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
THIS MORNING.  WHILE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT IT LACKS A
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY
OCCURRING OVER WATER WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.  SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS
LATER TODAY OR ON FRIDAY AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT NEAR 20 MPH. 
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE AREA LATER TODAY.  THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 
SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO BEFORE IT MOVES OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.  THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT... OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN