000
ABNT20 KNHC 011742
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 1 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 875 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 5 TO 10 MPH. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY BE FORMING.
IF THIS CURRENT DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...THEN ADVISORIES ON
THIS DISTURBANCE COULD BE INITIATED AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT
LAND AREAS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR BEFORE THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/KIMBERLAIN