000
ABNT20 KNHC 011133
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 1 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS MORNING AND CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. HOWEVER...THIS
ACTIVITY REMAINS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY NOT CONDUCIVE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT BEFORE THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. 
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/KIMBERLAIN