000
ABNT20 KNHC 312337
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 31 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AND COMPLEX AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE
TROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC.  THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING ABOUT 850 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.  CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40
PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. 
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT CONDUCIVE...AND DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY BEFORE IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL AMERICA
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/LANDSEA