000 ABNT20 KNHC 311144 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT SAT JUL 31 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA HAS DIMINISHED. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR...BUT THERE IS STILL A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...THAT IT WILL BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AND A SMALL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ARE PRODUCING A LARGE AND DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT OF EITHER SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BERG