000
ABNT20 KNHC 211134
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA HAS
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED. CONSEQUENTLY...THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
MISSION HAS BEEN POSTPONED UNTIL TOMORROW.  A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
IS NOT EXPECTED TO FORM TODAY BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
STILL FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA INTO THE
BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA TODAY AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HEAVY
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA