000
ABNT20 KNHC 191732
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUL 19 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO IS 
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT INTERACTS
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
AROUND 10 MPH.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...ALTHOUGH
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT
TIME.  REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND EASTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA REMAIN
DISORGANIZED. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION
AND TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS UNLIKELY AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/CANGIALOSI