000
ABNT20 KNHC 051154
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 5 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 60 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA.   ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND BY
TONIGHT OR TUESDAY.  THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. 

THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS BECOME
LESS ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT AND THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SCHEDULED
FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN CANCELED.  HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD STILL FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 MPH.  THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING AN
AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND ADJACENT WATERS.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE
FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. 

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE