000
ABNT20 KNHC 041140
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUL 4 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 125 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  THIS LOW IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.  STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND DRY AIR IN THE MID- AND
UPPER-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE CURRENTLY INHIBITING
DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES
INLAND LATER TODAY OR MONDAY.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE