000
ABNT20 KNHC 050111
TWOAT 
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
905 PM EDT SUN OCT 4 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION OF LOW NORTHEAST OF THE
AZORES

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
ABOUT 300 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS HAS CONTINUED
TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE ACQUIRING
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.  IF THIS TREND CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO...ADVISORIES ON A TROPICAL STORM WILL BE INITIATED
LATER THIS EVENING.  THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BROWN