000
ABNT20 KNHC 200521
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE TROUGH...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FRED...IS
LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY MINIMAL...AND ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.  THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 1150 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED.  HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH.  THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN