000
ABNT20 KNHC 191149
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FRED...
CENTERED ABOUT 475 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE INTERMITTENT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  THIS LOW
HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.  THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD
AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH. 

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT.  THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
NORTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION.  HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM WILL SOON BE MOVING OVER
COOLER WATERS AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED.  THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE