000
ABNT20 KNHC 182339
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FRED...
IS CENTERED ABOUT 490 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA AND IS
PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO
15 MPH.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOWS
SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.  SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 TO
50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN