000
ABNT20 KNHC 161143
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANTS OF FRED...LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...ARE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT
15 MPH. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE INTERMITTENT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THE SURFACE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME LESS
WELL-DEFINED OVERNIGHT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES
WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.  DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS
SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND
10 MPH.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE