000
ABNT20 KNHC 110248
TWOAT 
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1045 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO INCLUDE DISCUSSION OF LOW PRESSURE AREA
JUST EAST THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
FRED...LOCATED ABOUT 740 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

UPDATED...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST
EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.  THIS SYSTEM REMAINS ASSOCIATED
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...AND DEVELOPMENT
INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO
UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE
REFER TO PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES
IN THE REGION AND HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER
FZNT01 KWBC.

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH INTERACTING WITH A MID-
TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY NEAR THE TEXAS COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE GULF
COAST FROM NORTHEASTERN MEXICO TO LOUISIANA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG