000
ABNT20 KNHC 041731
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA ARE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A
SURFACE CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. REGARDLESS OF ANY DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
WHILE THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS
SOMEWHAT LIMITED...SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
AROUND 20 MPH OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BLAKE