000
ABNT20 KNHC 142325
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES AND DROPSONDE DATA FROM A NOAA HIGH ALTITUDE JET
INDICATE THAT FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO LOCATED ABOUT 1000
MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS REGENERATING AND COULD BECOME
ONCE AGAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT 12 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE ...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE WESTERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA
OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD ALSO FORM TONIGHT
OR SATURDAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 15 MPH. THERE
IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
NORTHWARD ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. THE ACTIVITY IS MORE
CONCENTRATED JUST NORTH OF THE COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA AND IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.  SURFACE
PRESSURES ARE RELATIVELY HIGH IN THIS AREA. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA