000
ABNT20 KNHC 031513
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED OCT 3 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED TODAY...AND THE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MISSION SCHEDULED FOR THIS AFTERNOON HAS
BEEN CANCELLED. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO
EVOLVE INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AT ABOUT
10 MPH.  

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORMING A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE TODAY...BUT BEGIN A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION ON
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. 
ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM
MELISSA...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED ABOUT 1350
MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN