000
ABNT20 KNHC 240929
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT MON SEP 24 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM JERRY...LOCATED ABOUT 995 MILES WEST OF THE AZORES.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS
PRODUCING LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY STRONG OVER THE WESTERN
GULF...BUT THEY COULD WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AND BECOME A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS CENTERED
ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS.  THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED OVERNIGHT WITHIN THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT STILL
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.  THE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO BRING SQUALLY WEATHER TO PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS LATER TODAY...AND THIS WEATHER COULD SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD
INTO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON TUESDAY.  INTERESTS IN THE LESSER
ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.  SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED OVERNIGHT...AND
THIS LARGE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.  IT
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER KNABB