000
ABNT20 KNHC 030925
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SUN SEP 3 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER IN WASHINGTON DC HAS
ISSUED THE FINAL ADVISORY ON THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO...LOCATED OVER
WESTERN NEW YORK.

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS GENERATING A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT 1450 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS
SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT
1050 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND ALSO ABOUT 400 MILES
WEST OF THE DEVELOPING TROPICAL WAVE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...IS
MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.  SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED AND
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS UNLIKELY AS THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY MERGE
LATER TODAY WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED TO THE EAST.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL WESTWARD-MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS INCREASED A LITTLE THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE
SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART