000 ABNT20 KNHC 011518 TWOAT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1130 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2005 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. TODAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF THE 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON... WHICH WILL RUN UNTIL NOVEMBER 30TH. LONG-TERM AVERAGES FOR THE NUMBER OF NAMED STORMS AND HURRICANES ARE 10 AND 6...RESPECTIVELY. WHILE CONDITIONS APPEAR TO FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL LEVELS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY IN 2005...AT THIS TIME IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO CONFIDENTLY PREDICT THE NUMBER OF CYCLONES THAT MIGHT AFFECT LAND. THE LIST OF NAMES FOR 2005 IS AS FOLLOWS... NAME PRONUNCIATION NAME PRONUNCIATION ------------------------------------------------------------- ARLENE MARIA MA REE AH BRET NATE CINDY OPHELIA O FEEL YA DENNIS PHILIPPE FEE LEEP EMILY RITA FRANKLIN STAN GERT TAMMY HARVEY VINCE IRENE WILMA JOSE HO ZAY KATRINA KA TREE NA LEE THIS PRODUCT...THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...IS ISSUED FOUR TIMES A DAY...AT 530 AM...1130 AM...530 PM AND 1030 PM EASTERN TIME. IT BRIEFLY DESCRIBES SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND THEIR POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL STORM FORMATION. A SEPARATE PRODUCT...THE SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT... MAY BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO DESCRIBE STRONG FORMATIVE WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT HAVE NOT YET REACHED TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS. THE SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT IS ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER WONT41 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIADSAAT. A STANDARD PACKAGE OF PRODUCTS...CONSISTING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...THE FORECAST/ADVISORY...THE CYCLONE DISCUSSION... AND THE STRIKE PROBABILITIES...IS ISSUED EVERY SIX HOURS FOR EACH ONGOING TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN ADDITION...A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE MAY BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO ADVISE OF SIGNIFICANT UNEXPECTED CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OR TO MODIFY WATCHES OR WARNINGS. AN ADDITIONAL PRODUCT...OF WHICH USERS MAY BE LESS FAMILIAR...IS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE...OR TCU...IS A BRIEF STATEMENT THAT MAY BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO INFORM OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR TO POST OR CANCEL WATCHES OR WARNINGS. IT IS OFTEN USED IN LIEU OF OR TO PRECEDE THE ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE. A CHANGE IN THE TCU HEADER FORMAT HAS BEEN IMPLEMENTED BEGINNING THIS YEAR...WITH THE INTRODUCTION OF STORM-SPECIFIC HEADERS SIMILAR TO THOSE USED FOR OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS. TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES CAN NOW BE FOUND UNDER WMO HEADERS WTNT61-WTNT65 KNHC...AND UNDER AWIPS HEADERS MIATCUAT1-MIATCUAT5. NEW AND EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCTS THAT WILL BE ISSUED ALONG WITH THE STANDARD ADVISORY PACKAGE ARE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SURFACE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES. THESE PRODUCTS...AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL AND TEXT FORM...PROVIDE PROBABILITIES OF SURFACE WIND SPEEDS OF TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE AT VARIOUS LOCATIONS. THE WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TEXT PRODUCTS CAN BE FOUND UNDER WMO HEADERS FONT11-FONT15 KNHC...AND UNDER AWIPS HEADERS MIAPWSAT1-MIAPWSAT5. FORECASTER BEVEN/KNABB $$