000 AXPZ20 KNHC 242205 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Sep 24 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Narda is centered near 15.1N 112.3W, or about 490 nm south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California at 24/2100 UTC, moving west at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Peak seas are to around 29 ft near the center of Narda. A 1652Z Metop-B Ascat pass nicely captured the system along with the outer periphery fringe fresh to strong winds. +Satellite imagery shows that the overall cloud pattern of Narda appears somewhat not as well defined as earlier today as it is being impacted by upper-level northeasterly vertical shear. The large area of very deep convection noted earlier today over and near the center of the cyclone has shrunk in size. Numerous strong convection is within 60 nm in the SE and S quadrants. Numerous moderate to strong convection is elsewhere within 90 nm of the center in the S semicircle and within 30 nm of the center in the N semicircle. The imagery also shows that the wide convective band coiling into the system from the NW has fractured some. This band consists of numerous moderate to isolated strong convection within 45 nm either side of a line from 18N114W to 15N116W to 13N114W and to 13N112W. Narda is forecast to maintain is current motion through the next couple of days, followed by a gradual turn toward the west- northwest Thu night and Fri. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours, followed by some restrengthening Thu night and Fri. Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico, and are expected to spread to portions of Baja California Sur late this week through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local or national meteorological office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Narda NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 97W from 04N to 17N, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated convection is within 120 nm west of the wave from 09N to 14N, and within 60 nm east of the wave from 12N to 141N. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm east of the wave from 10N to 12N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia westward to the Costa Rica/Panama border to 10N95W to 14N105W, where it pauses. It resumes southwest of Narda near 13N118W to 11N130W to beyond 11N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 04N to 09N between 77W-21W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 05N to 09N between 82W-87W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on Hurricane Narda. Aside from marine conditions attributed to Hurricane Narda affecting the SW Mexican offshore waters, generally tranquil weather conditions prevail across the offshore waters of Baja California due to relatively weak pressure present over the region. Light to gentle winds are ongoing along the Gulf of California and in the Tehuantepec region. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in south swell in the Tehuantepec region and 2 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, Narda will weaken some as it moves to near 15.3N 114.2W late tonight, to near 15.6N 116.7W Thu afternoon with maximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt, to near 16.0N 119.3W late Thu night, then begin to intensify as it moves to near 16.6N 121.5W Fri afternoon with maximum sustained winds 85 kt gusts 105 kt, to near 17.3N 123.4W late Fri night with maximum sustained winds 90 kt gusts 110 kt. As this happens, the pressure gradient will weaken allowing for moderate to locally fresh NW winds offshore of Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro to diminish. However, fresh to strong east to southeast winds are expected off Cabo Corrientes through early Thu afternoon. Fresh southerly winds are expected to develop over most of the Gulf of California from Thu night into early Fri evening as low pressure deepens over extreme NW Mexico near the Arizona border. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A rather weak pressure pattern generally remains in place over these waters allowing for mostly gentle winds and moderate seas. Moderate northeast to east winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo region along with seas of 3 to 5 ft in south to southwest swell. Deep atmospheric moisture is in place south of 09N, and is sustaining scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over that part of the area. For the forecast, moderate to fresh northeast gap winds will pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo region through Thu. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh southerly winds will prevail over the waters south of the monsoon trough through early Mon, then increase to fresh to strong speeds Mon afternoon into Mon night. Mostly moderate seas in south to southwest swell are expected over the regional waters through the period. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for further information on Hurricane Narda. Hurricane Narda is near 15.1N 111.7W, or about 490 nm south- southwest of the southern tip of Baja California at 2 PM PDT, moving westward at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure has risen slightly to 976 mb, and the maximum sustained wind speed has diminished slightly to 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Otherwise, broad weak high pressure remains across the area north of about 18N and west of 118W. The related pressure gradient is generally allowing for mostly gentle anticyclonic winds west of 125W, and for moderate to fresh north to northeast winds between 118W and 125W, with the fresh winds being on the outer periphery of the cyclonic circulation associated to Narda. Seas over these waters are 4 to 6 ft as captured by the most recent altimeter satellite passes. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and moderate seas are elsewhere south of the monsoon trough. Moderate or lighter winds along with moderate seas are present over the remainder of the area. For the forecast, latest NHC advisory has Narda weakening some as it moves to near 115.3N 114.2W late tonight, to near 15.6N 116.7W Thu afternoon with maximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt, then begin to track west-northwest to near 16.0N 119.3W late Thu night, and begin to intensify as it moves to near 16.6N 121.5W Fri afternoon with maximum sustained winds 85 kt gusts 105 kt, move to near 17.3N 123.4W late Fri night with maximum sustained winds 90 kt gusts 110 kt before it begins to again weaken as it moves to near 18.2N 124.4W Sat afternoon, and weaken further to a tropical storm near 20.1N 124.5W Sun afternoon with maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and moderate seas will remain south of the monsoon through the remainder of the week. At strong southerly winds may be possible over the waters south of Narda along with higher seas than surrounding waters. Beginning late on Sat and through the weekend, northerly swell is expected to spread moderate to rough seas to the north-central waters, roughly between 117W and 136W as it merges with southerly swell generated by Narda. $$ Aguirre