000 AXPZ20 KNHC 200849 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Jun 20 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Post-Tropical Cyclone Erick is centered inland near 18.2N 101.2W at 20/0300 UTC, moving northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. The low-level circulation of Erick continues to be disrupted by the mountainous terrain across Guerrero. Numerous showers and moderate thunderstorms continue over far western Guerrero and Michoacan, and within 120 nm of the coast, while scattered strong thunderstorms producing heavy to very heavy rain are occurring well to the northwest and west of the remnant surface center, across Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit. Recent satellite scatterometer data showed strong east to southeast winds to 25 kt occurring within 75 nm of the coast and the near shore waters of western Guerrero and Michoacan. Seas are 6 to 8 ft across this area. Although seas are subsiding, rough surf and very strong currents are producing life- threatening rip current conditions that will continue overnight. Please consult products from your local weather office. The remnant low of Erick is expected to continue moving northwest and gradually dissipate today. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Erick NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to 08N86W to 11N93W, then resumes near 13N102W to 11N122W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 03N to 12N E of 94.5W, and from 08N to 16N between 97.5W and 114W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 75 nm of the monsoon trough between 121W and 137W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for the latest information on Post-Tropical Cyclone Erick. Elsewhere, high pressure is centered well NW of Baja California along 145W and extends a ridge southeastward to near 23N121W. This pattern is allowing for moderate to fresh NW to N winds across the Baja waters north of Punta Abreojos, and moderate or weaker winds NW winds across the remaining Baja waters to the south, except for moderate to fresh westerly winds near Cabo San Lucas. Gentle to moderate westerly winds prevail further south and southeast, from the Revillagigedo Islands to Cabo Corrientes. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are across much of the Gulf of California, where slight seas to 3 ft prevail. New northerly swell has begun to move into the Baja Norte offshore waters tonight, producing seas of 6 to 8 ft north of Punta Eugenia, and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere across the Baja offshore waters. Seas are 5 to 6 ft elsewhere across the remaining waters, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec. For the forecast, outside of the diminishing impacts of Erick, strong high pressure centered well northwest of the area will support moderate to fresh northwest to north winds across the Baja California offshore waters north of Punta Eugenia through Sun morning before winds there gradually diminish to gentle to moderate by Tue. N swell will build across the Baja California waters through Sat evening, then gradually diminish through the middle of next week. Southerly winds across much of the Gulf of California tonight will gradually increase to fresh to locally strong late Fri afternoon through Sat evening. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate SW to W winds prevail between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands tonight, then become moderate or weaker from offshore Colombia northward to 10N, with moderate seas. Fresh NE gap winds prevail across the Papagayo region offshore to near 89W. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft in mixed S and SW swell across the are waters, except to 7 ft offshore of Papagayo. For the forecast, moderate S to SW winds offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands will increase to moderate to fresh through the upcoming weekend while expanding westward, and will coincide with an increase in thunderstorm activity across the area waters. Winds offshore Colombia northward to 10N will be moderate during this time. North of 10N, expect gap winds across the Papagayo region to pulse to mostly fresh speeds at night through early next week, possibly increasing to strong speeds on Mon night. Moderate seas will prevail across the regional waters through the forecast period. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad surface ridging extends from a 1031 mb high pressure center near 37N144W, located well northwest of the discussion area. The associated ridge extends south and southeastward across the open waters north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ and west of about 118W. Mostly moderate to fresh NE trades are north of about 12N and west of 130W, while moderate to fresh N to NE winds are north of 20N and between 120W and 130W. Moderate seas 5 to 8 ft in mixed SE and N swell prevail south of 24N, while seas are building to 8 to 9 ft in new N to NE swell north of 24N, and 9 to 10 ft north of 28N between 118W and 126W. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are south of the monsoon trough along with moderate seas. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will drift NW and strengthen slightly through the weekend to maintain the current wind pattern W of 120W. Seas north of 20N will build through the weekend as new N to NE swell propagates through these waters, spreading seas of 8 ft from the northeastern waters to 140W from Fri from Fri afternoon through Sun evening before subsiding. $$ Stripling