171 AXPZ20 KNHC 120912 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Apr 12 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Recent satellite derived scatterometer winds showed gale-force northerly gap winds continuing across the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight and extending to around 100 nm offshore. Concurrent satellite altimeter data showed peak seas in this area at 13 ft. These gale-force winds will generally continue into late Sat morning, then diminish to around 30 kt briefly Sat afternoon, before resuming Sat evening as high pressure strengthens over eastern Mexico Sat night and prolongs the gales into Sun morning. Seas will peak Sat morning at around 15 ft. Later on Sun, high pressure N of the area across the Gulf of America and eastern Mexico will move east and weaken, and marine conditions will quickly begin to improve. Please refer to the the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 10.5N75W to 06.5N79W to 08N84.5W to 04N97W to 03.5N114W. The ITCZ extends from 03.5N114W to 01N132W to 01N140W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 01.5N to 08.5N between 82W and 105W, and from 02S to 06S between 88W and 101W. Widely scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02.5N to 09N between 113W and 118.5W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on a gale warning in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Otherwise, broad high pressure well W of the area extends southeastward to offshore of southern Mexico. The resultant pressure gradient is generally weak across the regional waters tonight, leading to gentle to locally moderate NW to W winds over the waters, aside from fresh winds offshore Punta Eugenia. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft in merging NW and S swell offshore Baja California, except to 8 ft well offshore Baja Norte, while SW swell dominates the remaining waters S of 20N. In the Gulf of California, winds are generally variable at 10 kt or less, with seas 3 ft or less. For the forecast, strong northerly winds offshore of most of California will generate moderate to large NW swell that will build across the Baja California waters later this morning through Mon morning, then subside early next week. Winds across the area waters will remain moderate or less through early next week as high pressure remains well W to NW of the area. Looking ahead, gale-force gap winds may briefly redevelop in the Gulf of Tehunatepec Tue night into Wed morning. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Satellite derived scatterometer data showed fresh to locally strong E winds are across the Papagayo region earlier tonight, where seas are 6 to 7 ft. Further offshore, fresh NE to E winds resume west of 90W, where seas are 8 to 9 ft. Moderate to locally fresh N winds prevail across the Gulf of Panama N of 06.5N, where seas are 4 to 7 ft. Winds are light to gentle elsewhere, with seas of 5 to 8 ft in moderate S to SW swell, except 8 to 10 ft between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador. Scattered moderate to strong showers and thunderstorms continue across the waters north of the equator to 09N, and east of 94W to the coasts of Costa Rica and Panama, and also across the waters due south of the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, high pressure N of the region will shift eastward, passing slowly north of the western Caribbean through the middle of the coming week to maintain fresh NE to E gap winds pulsing to strong at night across the Papagayo region, with locally rough seas. Moderate to fresh N winds will pulse to strong at times through Sun night in the Gulf of Panama. Large N swell from Gulf of Tehuantepec gales will propagate into the waters offshore Guatemala through the weekend. Moderate SW swell impacting the regional waters will subside through the weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA.... A dissipating stationary front remains from around 30N132W to 26N140W. North of the front, fresh to locally strong NE winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft in NW swell prevail. North of this old boundary, a 1036 mb high is centered near 36N144W, and is producing a broad ridge aligned E to W. South of the ridge, moderate to locally fresh NE winds are found N of the ITCZ extending to near the front and W of 120W. Seas there are 6 to 9 ft in merging NW and S swell. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker. E of 115W, seas are 7 to 10 ft in merging SW and NW swell, and swell propagating away from Tehuantepec. For the forecast, the cross-equatorial swell will gradually subside from west to east today. Gulf of Tehunatepec northerly gales will send N to NE swell well southwest of the source region toward the central waters mixing with the aforementioned SW swell through the weekend. The front in the far NW waters will meander today before dissipating, producing fresh to locally strong NE winds and large NW swell behind it. That swell will build in across the northern waters today and spread southeastward through the weekend, inducing wave heights of 7 to 10 ft, mainly north of 24N. Winds will freshen west of 130W through the weekend as high pressure builds across the western waters in the wake of the dissipating front. $$ Stripling