000
AXPZ20 KNHC 312035
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Dec 31 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from near 10N84W to 06N104W. The ITCZ
extends from 06N104W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 78W and 82W, and 
from 07N to 10N between 130W and 140W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends from a 1028 mb high pressure centered NW of the 
region near 34N131W to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The 
pressure gradient between the ridge and a trough over The Gulf of
California is supporting gentle to moderate winds off Baja 
California Norte. Gentle to moderate winds are over the 
southwestern Mexico offshore waters. Light to gentle winds 
prevail elsewhere. NW swell is bringing seas of 8-9 ft over the 
open waters west of 102W. Seas of 4-6 ft prevail elsewhere over 
the open waters, and 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, seas across the Baja California and southwest 
Mexico offshore waters will decrease through Wed, subsiding below
8 ft by Wed evening. Gale conditions and rough seas are possible
for the Tehuantepec region Fri through early Sat. Winds will 
diminish below gale force early Sat, with strong winds continuing
through early Sun morning. Another round of NW swell will bring 
rough seas to Baja California Norte late this week into the 
weekend.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh winds are noted in the Gulf of Papagayo, with 
light to gentle winds prevailing elsewhere N of the monsoon
trough. S of the monsoon trough, gentle to locally moderate winds
prevail. Seas are in the 3-5 ft, except to 6 ft SW of the 
Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, fresh NE to E winds will pulse in the Gulf of
Papagayo through the weekend, with strong winds possible Wed
through the weekend. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds will
extend downwind the Papagayo region midweek, impacting areas
well offshore of Guatemala. Elsewhere, N of the monsoon trough
light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail
this week. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds and moderate seas
will occur south of the monsoon trough. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge extends from a 1028 mb high pressure centered NW of the 
region near 34N131W to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The 
pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower 
pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting mainly 
moderate to fresh winds N of the ITCZ and W of 120W. Light to 
gentle winds are elsewhere N of the ITCZ/monsoon trough. S of the
ITCZ/monsoon trough, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas are 
in the 6-9 ft range W of 100W, and 5-7 ft E of 100W. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds N of 10N will diminish
by Thu. The long- period NW swell will slowly subside through 
Wed. A new set of NW swell will enter the NW waters on Thu and 
propagate SE across the waters through the weekend. Seas will 
briefly peak around 12 ft on Fri over the northern waters W of 
130W.

$$
AL