000
AXPZ20 KNHC 310911
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Dec 31 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Panama near 08N81W
to 05N103W. The ITCZ extends from 05N103W to 08N120W to beyond
06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
noted from 05N to 10N between 81W and 94W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 06N to 09N between 107W and 123W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends from a 1028 mb high pressure centered NW of the
region near 38N132W to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The 
pressure gradient between the ridge and a trough over western 
Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh winds off Baja California 
Norte. Gentle to moderate winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
and the southern Mexico offshore waters. Light to gentle winds 
prevail elsewhere. NW swell is bringing seas of 8-10 ft over the 
open waters west of 102W. Seas of 4-6 ft prevail elsewhere over 
the open waters, and 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, seas across the Baja California and southwest
Mexico offshore waters will slowly decrease today through Wed, 
and subside below 8 ft by Wed evening. Looking ahead, gale 
conditions and rough seas are possible for the Tehuantepec region
Fri through Sat. Winds will likely drop below gale force by Sat 
night but continue to be strong through early Sun morning. 
Another round of NW swell bringing rough seas to Baja California 
Norte could occur starting Fri night into Sat.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate winds are noted near the Gulf of Papagayo, with light 
to gentle winds prevailing across the rest of the offshore 
waters. Seas are in the 3-5 ft, except to 6 ft SW of the 
Galapagos Islands and in the offshore waters of Guatemala. 
Scattered thunderstorms are noted across the Central American 
offshore waters. 

For the forecast, fresh NE to E winds will pulse in the Gulf of
Papagayo today through the weekend, with strong winds possible 
Wed through the weekend. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds will
extend downwind the Papagayo region midweek, impacting areas 
well offshore of Guatemala. Elsewhere, N of the monsoon trough 
light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail 
this week. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds and moderate seas 
will occur south of the monsoon trough. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge extends from a 1028 mb high pressure centered NW of the
region near 38N132W to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The 
pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower 
pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting mainly 
moderate to fresh winds N of the ITCZ and W of 120W. Light to 
gentle winds are elsewhere N of the ITCZ/monsoon trough. S of the
ITCZ/monsoon trough, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas are 
in the 7-10 ft range W of 100W, and 5-7 ft E of 100W. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will continue N of 10N
through Wed night before diminishing by Thu. The long- period NW
swell will slowly subside through Wed. However, a new NW swell 
event will begin to enter the NW waters on Thu and expand across
the waters through the weekend. Seas will peak around 12 ft on
Fri W of 130W, and continue progressing eastward toward Baja
California.

$$
AReinhart