000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300909
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Dec 30 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant NW swell: Long-period NW swell is beginning to
subside across the northern Baja California offshore waters. Seas
to 12 ft are noted N of 25N between 115W and 120W, mostly north
of Cabo San Lazaro. Seas will subside below 12 ft early this
morning. The rough seas will decay over the next few days,
subsiding below 8 ft by Wed. 

Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
11N86W to 07N100W. The ITCZ extends from 07N100W to 07N130W to 
beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
noted along the monsoon trough from 04N to 15N between 85W and 
100W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 09N 
between 118W and 133W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features Section above for details 
on the significant NW swell impacting the Baja California
offshore waters. 

The latest scatterometer data depicts fresh N to NW winds 
prevailing over the Baja California Norte offshore waters as 
surface ridging stretches across the area. Gentle to moderate N 
winds are noted south of Cabo San Lazaro with seas 8 to 11 ft. 
Meanwhile, gentle to locally moderate winds are noted in the Gulf
of California with seas to 3 ft. In the southern Mexico offshore
waters, fresh to strong N winds continue across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. Gentle winds prevail elsewhere in this area. East of
106W, seas are 4 to 7 ft within NW swell. 

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong N to NW winds will 
prevail over the Baja California Norte waters through Tue. Winds 
will begin to diminish by Tue night into Wed. Seas across the 
entire Baja California offshore waters will slowly decay through 
midweek, subsiding below 8 ft by Wed. The strong winds prevailing
over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will end by this afternoon. Looking
ahead, gale conditions and rough seas are possible for the 
Tehuantepec region beginning Thu night into Fri. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring off the coast 
of Panama through Guatemala. These storms are capable of
producing locally strong winds and rough seas. Otherwise, light 
to gentle winds prevail across the entire region. Seas range 4 to
6 ft within mostly NW swell. 

For the forecast, fresh NE to E winds will pulse in the Gulf of 
Papagayo Tue through the weekend, with strong winds possibly
occurring Fri into Sat. By Wed, moderate to locally fresh NE 
winds will extend beyond the Papagayo region, impacting areas 
well offshore of Guatemala. Otherwise, gentle to moderate S to SW
winds and moderate seas will occur south of the monsoon trough. 
North of the trough, light to gentle winds and slight to locally 
moderate seas will prevail this week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features section above for details about
the long-period NW swell impacting the waters through midweek. 

A 1030 mb high is centered north of the area near 36N135W, and 
ridging extends through most of the waters north of the monsoon
trough. Moderate to fresh winds are noted north of the monsoon
trough to 31N, with locally strong winds N of 18N and W of 130W.
Moderate to fresh winds are noted in the NW area of the forecast
waters behind a decayed front, N of 28N and W of 134W. Otherwise,
light to gentle winds are noted north of the monsoon trough/ITCZ
east of 120W. Light to gentle winds mostly prevail south of the
monsoon trough/ITCZ. Seas 8 to 12 ft cover most of the waters W
of 110W. East of 110W, seas are 5 to 7 ft within NW swell. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will continue N of 10N
through Wed night, with winds diminishing by Thu. Locally strong
winds are possible near 20N and W of 130W today. The long-period
NW swell will slowly subside through Wed. However, a new NW 
swell event will begin to propagate across the NW forecast 
waters, reaching as far south as 17N and as far east as 121W by 
Fri. 

$$
AReinhart