000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292159
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Dec 29 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant NW swell: A long-period NW swell continues to 
propagate through the northern and central waters today. Seas 
greater than 12 ft are noted N of 16N between 110W and 126W. Peak
seas near 13 ft are expected north of 24N between 116W and 122W 
through tonight. Rough seas will propagate southeastward before 
seas subside through midweek. 

Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 05N105W. The ITCZ 
continues from 05N105W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 14N east of 96W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features Section above for details 
on the significant NW swell that will continue to impact the 
waters offshore of Baja California through midweek.

Troughing is noted over northwestern Mexico, while a 1028 mb 
high is centered near 29N130W. Recent scatterometer satellite 
data show moderate N to NW winds occurring offshore of Baja 
California north of Cabo San Lazaro, with fresh NW winds noted 
north of Punta Eugenia. Moderate NW winds are also occurring 
through central and southern portions of the Gulf of California. 
Farther south, gentle to moderate N to NW winds prevail as 
ridging extends over the region. A long-period NW swell is 
producing rough seas through the Baja California waters as well 
as offshore of southwestern Mexico. Peak seas up to 13 ft are 
noted north of 24N and west of 117W. Elsewhere, seas of 3 to 6 ft
are occurring offshore of southern Mexico, with 1 to 3 ft seas 
in the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh N to NW winds will 
occur today offshore of Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro,
as well as through the Gulf of California. Winds will become 
strong tonight and pulse into Tue north of Punta Eugenia ahead of
a cold front moving down the coast of Southern California. Rough
seas generated by a long-period NW swell will continue early 
this week across the Baja California waters as well as offshore 
of southwestern Mexico before seas slowly subside by midweek. 
Peak seas of 12 to 13 ft are expected north of 21.5N and west of 
115W through tonight. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong speeds 
this afternoon through Mon morning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 
Looking ahead, near-gale conditions are possible for the 
Tehuantepec region on Thu. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring off the coast 
of Panama through Guatemala, and briefly strong winds and rough 
seas are likely near convection. Otherwise, moderate S to SW 
winds occurring south of the monsoon trough, with seas of 5 to 7 
ft. North of the trough, light to gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft seas
prevail. 

For the forecast, fresh NE to E winds will pulse in the Gulf of 
Papagayo Tue into next weekend as low pressure strengthens over 
the south-central Caribbean. By Wed, moderate to fresh NE winds 
will extend beyond the Papagayo region, impacting areas well 
offshore of Guatemala. Otherwise, gentle to moderate S to SW 
winds and moderate seas will occur south of the monsoon trough. 
North of the trough, light to gentle winds and slight to locally 
moderate seas will prevail this week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features section above for details about
the long-period NW swell impacting the waters through midweek. 

A 1028 mb high is centered near 29N130W, and ridging extends 
through most of the waters north of the ITCZ. Moderate NE to E 
winds are occurring along the periphery of the ridge, with fresh 
winds occurring north of 25N and east of 123W, and locally strong
winds occurring from 15N to 25N west of 131W. A decaying cold 
front is entering the northwestern waters, extending from 30N135W
to 29N140W. Moderate NE winds are occurring north of the frontal
boundary. South of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, gentle to 
locally moderate S to SE winds prevail. Away from rough seas 
generated by the long-period NW swell described in the section 
above, seas of 6 to 8 ft prevail across the remainder of the 
area.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse 
north of 10N and west of 120W today through Tue as a tightening 
pressure gradient develops between ridging in the northern 
waters, a cold front north of the area, and the monsoon trough. 
Locally strong E winds will be possible between 15N and 22N west 
of 130W today through late Mon. A weakening cold front will move 
through the waters offshore of Baja California tonight into Tue, 
promoting fresh to strong N winds north of 22N and east of 125W. 
Elsewhere, moderate S to SE winds will prevail south of the 
monsoon trough and ITCZ this week. Seas in excess of 8 ft north 
of the equator and west of 100W will subside by midweek. 

$$
ADAMS