070 
AXPZ20 KNHC 290907
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Dec 29 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant NW swell: A long-period NW swell continues to 
propagate through the discussion waters. Seas greater than 12 ft
are noted N of 14N between 116W and 136W. Peak seas near 14 ft 
are expected north of 24N between 117W and 126W through late this
morning. Rough seas will propagate southeastward before seas 
subside through mid-next week. 

Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by 
the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 04N105W. The ITCZ 
continues from 04N105W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 05N to 12N east of 94W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features Section above for details on
the significant NW swell that will continue to impact the waters
offshore of Baja California today.

A 1028 mb high is centered near 29N129W and ridging extends 
through the Mexico offshore waters, while troughing prevails over
northwestern Mexico. This pattern supports moderate to fresh NW 
winds offshore of Baja California. Otherwise, gentle to moderate 
N to NW winds prevail over the remainder of the Mexico offshore 
waters. A long-period NW swell is promoting seas in excess of 8 
ft offshore of Baja California north of 18N, with peak seas to 14
ft occurring north of 26N. Elsewhere, moderate seas are noted 
offshore of southwestern Mexico, with seas of 1 to 3 ft through 
the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds will prevail 
offshore of Baja California today. A weakening cold front will 
move into the northern waters Sun night into Tue, promoting fresh
to strong N winds offshore of Baja California Norte. A long- 
period NW swell will propagate southeastward through the waters 
this weekend, with rough seas offshore of Baja California and SW 
Mexico before seas slowly diminish by the middle of next week. 
Elsewhere, fresh to strong N winds will pulse in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec Sun through Mon morning. Looking ahead, near-gale 
conditions are possible for the Tehuantepec region on Thu. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate S to SW winds are noted south of the monsoon trough, 
while light to gentle variable winds prevail elsewhere. Moderate
seas prevail across the whole region. North of the monsoon 
trough, light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft prevail. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse in 
the Gulf of Papagayo beginning on Tue and continue through the
week as low pressure prevails in the southwestern Caribbean. 
Moderate S to SW winds are expected south of the monsoon trough, 
with light to gentle winds occurring to the north.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features section above for details about
the long-period NW swell impacting the waters today. 

A 1028 mb high is centered near 29N129W and ridging extends 
through the waters north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Light to
gentle winds are noted near the center of the ridge, while 
moderate to fresh NE to E winds are occurring from 07N to 24N, 
west of 115W. South of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, gentle to 
moderate S to SE winds are noted. Away from rough seas generated 
by the long-period NW swell described in the section above, seas
of 6 to 9 ft prevail across the remainder of the area.

For the forecast, surface ridging will continue to dominate the 
waters north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ today, promoting 
moderate to fresh NE to E winds. A weakening cold front will move
through the waters offshore of Baja California tonight into Tue,
promoting fresh to strong N winds north of 22N and east of 125W.
Elsewhere, moderate S to SE winds will prevail south of the 
monsoon trough and ITCZ into next week. Seas in excess of 8 ft  
north of the equator and west of 100W will subside by early to 
mid-next week. 

$$
ERA