000 AXPZ20 KNHC 290237 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Dec 29 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant NW swell: A long-period NW swell, generated from a hurricane-force low over the central Pacific, continues to propagate through the discussion waters tonight. Seas greater than 12 ft are noted N of 15N between 117W and 140W. Peak seas near 14 ft are expected north of 27N between 119W and 127W through late tonight. Rough seas will propagate southeastward through Sun before seas subside through mid-next week. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 05N106W. The ITCZ continues from 05N106W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N east of 95W, and from 03N to 13N between 115W and 135W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features Section above for details on the significant NW swell that will continue to impact the waters offshore of Baja California this weekend. A 1028 mb high is centered near 30N128W and ridging extends through the Mexico offshore waters, while troughing prevails over northwestern Mexico. This pattern supports moderate to fresh NW winds offshore of Baja California. Otherwise, gentle to moderate N to NW winds prevail over the remainder of the Mexico offshore waters. A long-period NW swell is promoting seas in excess of 8 ft offshore of Baja California north of 18N, with peak seas to 14 ft occurring north of 27N. Elsewhere, moderate seas are noted offshore of southwestern Mexico, with seas of 1 to 2 ft through the Gulf of California. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds will occur offshore of Baja California this weekend as high pressure prevails to the west and troughing reigns over the Gulf of California. A weakening cold front will move into the northern waters Sun night into Tue, promoting fresh to strong N winds offshore of Baja California Norte. A long-period NW swell will propagate southeastward through the waters this weekend, with rough seas offshore of Baja California and SW Mexico before seas slowly diminish by the middle of next week. Elsewhere, fresh to strong N winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun through Mon morning. Looking ahead, gale conditions are possible for the Tehuantepec region on Thu. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate NE winds are pulsing in the Gulf of Papagayo as low pressure prevails over Colombia. Otherwise, moderate S to SW winds and moderate seas are noted south of the monsoon trough. A decaying NW swell continues to support seas to 8 ft offshore of Ecuador, west of 89W. North of the monsoon trough, light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft prevail. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo through at least the middle of next week as low pressure prevails in the southwestern Caribbean. Moderate S to SW winds are expected south of the monsoon trough, with light to gentle winds occurring to the north. Moderate to rough seas offshore of Ecuador, near the Galapagos Islands, will subside through tonight. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please read the Special Features section above for details about the long-period NW swell impacting the waters this weekend. A 1028 mb high is centered near 30N128W and ridging extends through the waters north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Light to gentle winds are noted near the center of the ridge, while moderate to fresh NE to E winds are occurring from 08N to 24N, west of 115W. South of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, gentle to moderate S to SE winds are noted. Away from rough seas generated by the long-period NW swell, seas of 6 to 9 ft prevail. For the forecast, surface ridging will continue to dominate the waters north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ this weekend, promoting moderate to fresh NE to E winds. A weakening cold front will move through the waters offshore of Baja California Sun night into Tue, promoting fresh to strong N winds north of 22N and east of 125W. Elsewhere, moderate S to SE winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ into next week. Seas in excess of 8 ft will occur north of the equator and west of 100W through this weekend before seas slowly subside by early to mid- next week. $$ ERA