000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272010
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Dec 27 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant NW swell: A set of large NW swell has been generated
from a hurricane force low over the central Pacific. Seas 12 ft
or greater from this swell has moved into the NW discussion 
waters today. This afternoon, seas of 12 ft or greater are W of 
a line from 30N136W to 28N140W and are peaking near 14 ft over 
these waters. Seas 12 ft or greater with this swell will move SE 
across the waters mainly north of 18N through the upcoming 
weekend. 

Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by 
the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 05N104W. The ITCZ 
extends from 05N104W to 07N113W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 05N to 08N between 79W and
86W, from 05N to 12N between 112W and 120W, and from 05N to 08N 
between 120W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features Section above for details on
the significant NW swell that will impact the waters offshore 
Baja California through the upcoming weekend.

A ridge extends from a 1027 mb high pressure centered near 
28N132W to the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient 
between this area of high pressure and lower pressure over the
Baja California peninsula is supporting moderate to fresh NW-N 
winds offshore Baja California Norte. Gentle to moderate winds 
prevail across the remainder of the open waters offshore Mexico. 
Light to gentle winds are in the Gulf of California. Seas are 
mainly 8 ft or greater across the offshore waters W of 105W, and 
5 to 7 ft E of 105W. Seas are 3 ft or less in the Gulf of 
California.

For the forecast, high pressure west of the area will maintain 
moderate northerly winds pulsing to fresh from Cabo San Lazaro 
northward through this weekend, with gentle to moderate winds 
across the remainder of the open waters. Fresh to locally strong 
N winds may briefly pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun evening.
NW swell will impact most waters into early next week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate NE gap winds prevail in the Papagayo region. Light to 
gentle winds prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. South
of the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate S to SW winds prevail.
Seas are mainly in the 4-7 ft range in NW swell, reaching 8 ft 
near the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, moderate gap winds will pulse in the Papagayo 
region through the next several days, with light to gentle winds 
elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds are 
expected S of the monsoon trough. NW swell across the area waters
will start to subside this weekend. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features section above for details about
NW swells which will impact the waters N of 18N through the
upcoming weekend.

A 1027 mb high is centered near 28N132W. Light to gentle 
anticyclonic winds are in the vicinity of the high center. 
Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere north of the ITCZ and west 
of 115W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the remainder of
the open waters, including south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough.
Aside from the large swell discussed above, seas are mainly in 
the 7 to 9 ft range.

For the forecast, other than the large NW swell discussed in the
Special Features section, little change in winds are forecast 
over the next several days. Seas of 8 ft or greater will cover 
most of the waters west of roughly 90W through tonight before 
subsiding.

$$
AL