452 
AXPZ20 KNHC 260208
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Dec 26 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant NW swell: A series of low pressure systems will
continue to rotate across the waters north of 30N with 
associated cold fronts occasionally pushing south of 30N. These 
low pressure systems will send several rounds of large NW swell 
that will propagate into the area through the remainder of the 
week and into next weekend. Currently, seas of 12 ft or greater
cover the waters offshore Baja California within 300 nm or so,
and over the west-central waters from 06N to 11N between 135W and
140W. Reinforcing swell with seas of 12 ft or greater will move 
across the waters mainly north of 20N for the remainder of the
week into the upcoming weekend. Please see the latest NWS High 
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N83.5W to 05N100W. The ITCZ 
extends from 05N100W to 05N125W to beyond 07N140W. Widely 
scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 16N between 
79W and 98W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features Section on significant NW swells
that will impact the waters offshore Baja California through the 
remainder of the week and into the upcoming weekend.

A weakening cold front extends from NW mainland Mexico across the
central Gulf of California to the Baja California Peninsula just
south of Punta Eugenia to 24N120W. High pressure well west of 
Baja California to the west of the front, combined with low 
pressure troughing over NW Mexico is supporting fresh to strong 
NW-N winds offshore Baja California from Cabo San Lazaro 
northward, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere offshore Baja 
California. Winds of gentle to moderate prevail across the 
remainder of the waters offshore Mexico. Seas are mainly 8 ft or 
greater across the offshore waters, except 4 to 7 ft from 
southern Mexico from Chiapas and Tehuantepec just southwestward. 
Seas are 2 to 4 ft in the northern Gulf of California and 3 ft or
less elsewhere in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, high pressure west of the area will maintain 
moderate northerly winds pulsing to fresh to strong from Cabo San
Lazaro northward through early Sat, with gentle to moderate 
winds across the remainder of the open waters. Fresh to strong 
winds may return offshore Baja California Norte early next week. 
Several rounds of significant NW swell will impact most waters 
through the next several days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh NE gap winds prevail in the Papagayo region, 
where seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds 
prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. South of the 
monsoon trough, moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds prevail.
Seas are building in NW Swell to 4 to 7 ft across the offshore
waters from Costa Rica westward with seas of 3 to 5 ft across the
remainder of the waters.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh gap winds will prevail in 
the Papagayo region through the end of the week before 
diminishing. A surge of fresh NW to N winds will move across the 
offshore waters of Guatemala through tonight. Moderate to locally
fresh winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough through at 
least the end of the week. Seas will build slightly through the 
end of the week as NW swell moves into the regional waters, 
decaying into the upcoming weekend. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features section about large NW swells
propagating across the majority of the waters through the next
several days.

A weakening cold front extends from NW mainland Mexico across the
central Gulf of California to the Baja California Peninsula just
south of Punta Eugenia to 24N120W. High pressure in the wake of
the front is over the far NW waters near 29N135W. Light to 
gentle anticyclonic winds are north of 26N and west of 128W near 
the high center. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere north of 
the ITCZ and west of 110W, except fresh to strong just north of 
the ITCZ to 18N or so and west of 125W. Gentle to moderate winds 
prevail across the remainder of the open waters, including south 
of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. Aside from the large swell 
discussed above, seas are mainly in the 6 to 8 ft range east of 
95W.

For the forecast, other than the large NW swells discussed in 
the Special Features section, the front will dissipate tonight
into Thu while little change in winds are forecast over the next
several days. The pressure gradient over the western waters will
continue to support fresh to strong trade winds just north of 
the ITCZ and W of 130W through Thu. Meanwhile, seas of 8 ft or 
greater will spread SE and cover most of the waters west of 
roughly 90W later this evening into the end of the week before 
decaying.

$$
Lewitsky