000 AXPZ20 KNHC 252029 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Dec 25 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant NW swell: A series of low pressure systems will continue to rotate across the waters north of 30N with associated cold fronts occasionally pushing south of 30N. These low pressure systems will send several rounds of large NW swell that will propagate into the area through the remainder of the week and into next weekend. Currently, seas greater than 11 ft cover the waters roughly west of a line from near Cabo San Lucas to across the Revillagigedo Islands to 07N119W. The large swell will reach just beyond the offshore waters of Central America through Fri. Reinforcing swell with seas of 12 ft or greater will move across the waters mainly north of 20N this weekend. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 05N115W. The ITCZ extends from 05N115W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 80W and 90W, from 06N to 16N between 92W and 100W, and from 08N to 11N between 132W and 136W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features Section on significant NW swell that will impact the waters offshore Baja California through the remainder of the week and into the upcoming weekend. A cold front is moving through the northern Gulf of California extending across Baja California Norte and the offshore waters off Baja California Norte. High pressure is building in the wake of the front, centered near 31N130W. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting fresh to locally strong winds north of the front over the Baja California Norte waters, and moderate to fresh winds N of the front over the northern Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico, with gentle winds over the remainder of the Gulf of California waters. Seas are in the 4 to 7 ft range east of 98W, while seas are 8 ft or greater west of 98W, including offshore Baja California, where seas of 12 to 13 ft prevail. Seas are 3 ft or less inside the Gulf of California. For the forecast, high pressure west of the area will maintain moderate northerly winds pulsing to fresh to strong from Cabo San Lazaro northward through Thu night, with gentle to moderate winds across the remainder of the open waters. Significant NW swell will impact most waters through at least the remainder of the week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE gap winds prevail in the Papagayo region, where seas are in the 5 to 6 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. South of the monsoon trough, moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds prevail. Seas of 3 to 6 ft in S to SW swell are elsewhere outside of the Papagayo region. For the forecast, moderate to fresh gap winds will prevail in the Papagayo region through the end of the week before diminishing. A surge of fresh NW to N winds will move across the offshore waters of Guatemala through tonight. Moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough through the end of the week before diminishing this weekend. Seas will build slightly as NW swell moves into the regional waters, decaying into the upcoming weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please read the Special Features section about large NW swells propagating across the majority of the waters through the next several days. A weakening cold front is over the northern discussion waters, extending across the northern Gulf of California and across Baja California Norte to near 23N132W. High pressure is building in the wake of the front, with a 1026 mb high centered near 31N130W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high center, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere west of the front. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong winds north of the ITCZ to around 17N and west of 130W. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere north of the ITCZ to 22N and west of 120W. Across the remainder of the open waters, including south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ, gentle to locally moderate trades prevail. Aside from the large swell discussed above, seas are mainly in the 6 to 8 ft range. For the forecast, other than the large NW swells discussed in the Special Features section, little change in winds are forecast over the next several days. The weakening cold front mentioned above will gradually dissipate over the northern waters tonight. The pressure gradient over the western waters will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds just north of the ITCZ and W of 130W through Thu. Meanwhile, seas of 8 ft or greater will spread SE and cover most of the waters west of roughly 90W this evening into the end of the week. $$ AL