000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250319
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Dec 25 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant NW swell: A large, complex, and powerful low 
pressure system north of the area will generate several rounds 
of large NW swell that will propagate into the area through the 
remainder of the week and into next weekend. Currently, seas 
greater than 12 ft cover the waters roughly west of a line from 
near Cabo San Lucas to 04N132W. The large swell has reached the 
offshore waters of SW Mexico, and will reach just beyond the 
offshore waters of Central America Wed through Fri. Reinforcing
swell of 12 ft or greater will move in across the waters mainly
north of 20N this weekend. Please see the latest NWS High Seas 
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08.5N83W to 05.5N101W to 05N115W. 
The ITCZ extends from 05N115W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 04N to 09N between 82W and 95W,
from 05N to 07N between 102W and 108W, from 07N to 10N between
128W and 131W, and from 07N to 10N between 136W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features Section on significant NW swell
that will impact the waters offshore Baja California through the
remainder of the week and into the upcoming weekend.

Fresh to strong northerly winds prevail in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, with seas to 7 ft. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to 
moderate northerly winds prevail across offshore waters of 
Mexico, including inside of the Gulf of California. Seas are in 
the 4 to 7 ft east of 100W, while seas are 8 ft or greater west 
of 100W, including offshore Baja California. Seas are 3 ft or 
less inside the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec will gradually diminish tonight. High pressure west 
of the area will maintain moderate northerly winds pulsing to 
fresh to strong from Cabo San Lazaro northward this evening 
through Thu night, with gentle to moderate winds across the 
remainder of the open waters. Fresh to locally strong winds will 
be in the northern Gulf of California late tonight into Wed as a 
cold front moves through the region. Significant NW swell will 
spread southeastward to impact most waters through at least the 
remainder of the week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The pressure gradient between a surface ridge extending 
southward over Central America and the EPAC monsoon trough is 
supporting fresh to strong NE gap winds in the Papagayo. Seas are
4 to 7 ft across this area. Light to gentle winds prevail 
elsewhere north of the monsoon trough with seas of 3 to 5 ft. 
South of the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate S to SW winds 
prevail. Seas of 3 to 6 ft in S to SW swell are elsewhere outside
of the Papagayo region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
across the offshore waters from near the coast of Panama
southwestward including offshore southern Costa Rica.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
extending southward over Central America and the eastern north 
Pacific monsoon trough will support fresh gap winds pulsing to 
strong winds in the Papagayo region through early Wed, then 
moderate to fresh thereafter. Elsewhere, winds will be moderate 
or weaker with moderate seas through tonight. A surge of at least
fresh NW to N winds will move across the offshore waters of 
Guatemala mid-week. Winds may freshen south of the monsoon trough
beginning Thu. Seas will build Wed as NW swell moves into the 
regional waters, decaying into the upcoming weekend. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features section about large NW swells
propagating across the majority of the waters through the next
several days.

A cold front is over the far NW portion of the discussion 
waters from 30N123W to 23.5N140W. Moderate to fresh winds are
immediately west of the cold front. A weak ridge is positioned
just ahead of the front. The pressure gradient between the ridge 
and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting 
fresh to strong winds north of the ITCZ to around 17N and west 
of 130W. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere north of the ITCZ 
to 20N and west of 120W. Across the remainder of the open waters,
including south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ, gentle to moderate 
trades prevail. Aside from the large swell discussed above, seas 
are mainly in the 5 to 8 ft range.

For the forecast, other than the large NW swells discussed in 
the Special Features section, little change in winds are forecast
over the next several days. The cold front mentioned above will 
decay over the northern waters into mid-week. High pressure
building in the wake of the front, supporting fresh to strong 
trade winds just north of the ITCZ and W of 130W through mid- 
week. Meanwhile, seas of 8 ft or greater will spread SE and 
cover most of the waters west of roughly 90W Wed evening into the
end of the week.

$$
Lewitsky