000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242010
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Dec 24 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant NW swell: A large, complex, and powerful low 
pressure system north of the area will sweep north of the area 
waters today. This system will generate several rounds of large 
NW swell that will propagate into the area through the remainder 
of the week and into next weekend. Currently, seas greater than 
12 ft cover the waters roughly west of a line from Baja 
California Sur to 05N140W. The large swell has reached the 
offshore waters of SW Mexico, and will reach just beyond the 
offshore waters of Central America by midweek. Please see the 
latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane 
Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09.5N84W to 06N109W. The ITCZ 
extends from 06N109W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 05N to 08N between 80W and 87W, from 
05N to 08N between 92W and 107W, and from 07N to 11N between 
120W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features Section on significant NW swell
that will impact the waters offshore Baja California through the
remainder of the week and into the upcoming weekend.

Fresh to strong northerly winds prevail in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, with seas to 7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate northerly 
winds prevail across the Baja California waters, while light to 
gentle winds prevail elsewhere including inside of the Gulf of 
California. Seas are in the 4 to 7 ft over the open waters off S
Mexico, while seas are 8 ft or greater W of 100W, including 
offshore Baja California. Seas are 3 ft or less inside the Gulf 
of California.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec will gradually diminish through mid-week. High 
pressure west of the area will maintain moderate northerly winds 
pulsing to fresh at times offshore of Baja California through 
today, then pulse to fresh to strong from Cabo San Lazaro 
northward this evening through Thu night, with gentle to moderate
winds across the remainder of the open waters. Fresh to strong 
winds will be in the northern Gulf of California late tonight 
into Wed as a cold front moves through the region. Significant NW
swell will spread southeastward to impact most waters through 
the remainder of the week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The pressure gradient between a surface ridge extending 
southward over the western Caribbean Sea and the EPAC monsoon 
trough is supporting fresh to strong NE gap winds in the 
Papagayo. Seas are 5 to 7 ft across this area. Light to gentle 
winds prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. South of the
monsoon trough, gentle to moderate S to SW winds prevail. Seas 
of 3 to 6 ft in S to SW swell are elsewhere outside of the 
Papagayo region.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
extending southward over the western Caribbean and the eastern
north Pacific monsoon trough will support fresh gap winds
pulsing to strong winds in the Papagayo region through Wed, then
moderate to fresh thereafter. Elsewhere, winds will be moderate
or weaker with moderate seas through tonight. A surge of at
least fresh NW to N winds will move across the offshore waters
of Guatemala mid-week. Winds may freshen south of the monsoon
trough beginning early Thu. Seas will build Wed as NW swell
moves into the regional waters, decaying into the upcoming
weekend.  

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features section about large NW swells
propagating across the majority of the waters through the next
several days.

A cold front is over the far NW portion of the discussion 
waters from 30N124W to 24N140W. Moderate to fresh winds are west
of the cold front. High pressure is building in the wake of the 
front. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure 
and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting 
fresh to strong winds N of the ITCZ to near 15N and W of 130W. 
Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere north of the ITCZ to 20N 
and west of 120W. Across the remainder of the open waters, 
including south of the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ, gentle to moderate 
trades prevail. Aside from the large swell discussed above, seas 
are mainly in the 5 to 8 ft range.

For the forecast, other than the large NW swells discussed in 
the Special Features section, little change in winds are forecast
over the next several days. The cold front mentioned above will 
decay over the northern waters into mid-week. High pressure
building in the wake of the front, supporting fresh to strong 
trade winds just north of the ITCZ and W of 130W through mid- 
week. Meanwhile, seas of 8 ft or greater will spread SE and 
cover most of the waters west of roughly 90W Wed evening into the
end of the week.

$$
AL