000 AXPZ20 KNHC 190425 AAA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Dec 19 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The passage of a cold front and a high pressure in its wake will enhance northeasterly winds across the Gulf of Mexico. This is going to sustain near gale to gale-force gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Sunday morning. Seas under the strongest winds will peak between 10 and 12 ft. As the high shifts eastward, this should allow winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec to gradually subside Sunday afternoon and evening. Please see the latest NWS High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A monsoon trough extends westward from the west coast of central Costa Rico to 04N93W. An ITCZ continues from 04N93W across 05N110W to 07N128W, then from 70N132W to beyond 140W at 07N. Scattered moderate convection is seen south of the monsoon trough from 04N to 06N between 79W and 85W, and near the ITCZ from 06N to 10N west of 135W. Updated the Forecast portion in both Offshore Waters sections ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure of 1028 mb is analyzed northwest of Baja California Norte near 35N127W. A ridge extends from the high east- southeastward across the Baja Peninsula. The related gradient has relaxed some allowing for winds to decrease to light to gentle with seas 5 to 8 ft in northwest swell, except for higher seas of 8 to 10 ft west of Baja California Norte. In the Gulf of California, recent scatterometer data depicted fresh to locally strong winds over the area with seas 2 to 4 ft. Strong to near gale-force northerly winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region along with seas to 8 ft. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in mixed swell prevail across the southwestern Mexican offshore zones. For the forecast, strong to gale-force gap winds and rough seas in the Gulf of Tehuantepec are expected to continue through early Sun morning, then gradually subside Sun afternoon and evening. Light to gentle winds over the offshore waters north of Cabo San Lazaro will continue through Fri night, then increase to between moderate and fresh this weekend through early next week. NW swell persist west of Baja California tonight before subsiding Thu morning. Moderate to fresh NW winds in the central Gulf of California will diminish to between gentle to moderate by Thu. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh northeast winds are pulsing to strong speeds in the Gulf of Papagayo region with seas 4 to 7 ft. These winds are generally driven by the gradient associated to high pressure that extends into the northwestern Caribbean Sea from the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are pulsing in the Gulf of Panama, where seas are 3 to 5 ft. Elsewhere south of the monsoon trough and between Ecuador and the Galapagos, southerly winds are light to gentle in speeds, and seas are 4 to 6 ft in a south to southwest swell. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will continue to pulse in the Papagayo region through the next few days along with moderate seas. Moderate northerly winds pulsing to fresh will occur in the Gulf of Panama through Sun. Gentle to moderate winds between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will continue through Fri, then mainly gentle will prevail afterward. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1028 mb is analyzed near 35N127W. A ridge extends southeastward from this high across the subtropical waters, which is supporting gentle to moderate northwest winds west of the Baja Peninsula offshores along with seas 8 to 11 ft reaching to near 120W. The gradient between the ridge and relatively lower pressure found to its south is sustaining fresh to locally strong trades over the tropical waters west of about 124W, where seas are in the 8 to 12 ft range. A surface trough that is analyzed along 127W from 06N to 10N has helped to sustain the fresh to locally strong winds. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere south of the ITCZ and north of the ITCZ west of 120W. For the forecast, mostly fresh northeast to east winds and seas to 11 ft will be present west of about 123W through Thu as the gradient in place fluctuates little. The aforementioned trough will continue westward though Thu while losing its identity. A cold front is expected to approach 30N140W tonight, preceded by fresh to strong southerly winds. The leading edge of a large set of northwest swell is forecast to outrun the front reaching from near 30N132W to 27N140W late tonight. By Thu seas will build to 9 to 14 ft in the area of these winds. A reinforcing cold front will skirt the northwest forecast waters Fri night preceded by fresh to strong winds and seas to 19 ft. Yet another cold front may approach 30N140W on Mon, preceded by fresh to strong southwest to west winds, and like the previous one, have the leading edge of a large set of northwest out ahead of it. Latest wave model guidance from the GFS depicts seas to about 20 ft near 30N and west of 134W on Mon. $$ Chan