000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180328
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Dec 18 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong to near gale-force gap 
winds ongoing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region are expected to 
reach gale-force by Wed night and continue through late Sat 
night. A a cold front is forecast to move across the Gulf of 
Mexico tightening the pressure gradient. Please see the latest 
NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia to
southern Panama to 08N81W to 07N86W to 06N93W, where it 
transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 06N100W to 06N110W 
to 08N120W. A trough extends from 10N122W to 05N124W. It resumes
west of this trough at 07N125W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between
108W and 110W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1026 mb is centered well to the west-northwest 
of Baja California Norte near 34N127W. A ridge extends from the 
high east-southeastward across the Baja Peninsula. The related 
gradient is allowing for generally moderate to fresh northwest to
north winds to continue across the waters north of Cabo San 
Lazaro along with 5 to 8 ft seas in northwest swell, except for 
higher seas of 7 to 11 ft west of Baja California Norte.
In the Gulf of California, winds are moderate to fresh in speeds
and northwest in direction with seas 2 to 4 ft. Strong to near 
gale-force northerly winds continue to affect the region of 
Tehuantepec along with seas to 8 ft. Light to gentle winds and 
moderate seas in mixed swell prevail across the southwestern 
Mexican offshore zones.

For the forecast, the gradient related to previously mentioned
high pressure will continue to support pulsing moderate to fresh
northwest to north winds N of Cabo San Lazaro through late 
tonight. New northwest swell is forecast to approach Punta 
Eugenia late tonight and subside N of Cabo San Lazaro Thu 
morning. Fresh to strong northwest winds in the central Gulf of 
California will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds Wed night, 
and be at mostly moderate speeds starting on Thu. While, gentle 
or weaker winds will prevail Sun. Strong to near gale- force gap 
winds ongoing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region are expected to 
reach gale-force by Wed night and continue through late Sat 
night. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh northeast winds are pulsing to strong speeds in the 
Gulf of Papagayo region supported by a relatively tight
gradient between high pressure that is present over the 
northwestern Caribbean Sea and over northern Central America, and
a trough that is analyzed in the western Caribbean Sea. Moderate
to fresh northerly winds are pulsing in the Gulf of Panama, 
where seas remain in the 3 to 5 ft range. Elsewhere south of the 
monsoon trough and between Ecuador and the Galapagos, southerly 
winds are light to gentle and seas are to 5 ft in a south to 
southwest swell.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast winds will continue 
to pulse in the Papagayo region through the next few days along 
with moderate seas. Moderate northerly winds pulsing to fresh 
speeds will prevail in the Gulf of Panama through Sun. Gentle to 
moderate winds between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will 
continue through Fri, then mainly gentle speeds will prevail. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1027 mb is analyzed near 34N127W. A ridge 
extends southeastward from this high across the subtropical 
waters, which is supporting moderate to fresh northeast winds 
west of the Baja Peninsula offshores along with seas to around 8 
ft reaching to near 120W. The gradient between the ridge and 
relatively lower pressure found to its south is sustaining fresh 
to strong trades over the tropical waters west of about 123W, 
where seas are 8 to 12 ft. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere
south of the ITCZ and north of the ITCZ east of 115W. 

For the forecast, mostly fresh northeast to east winds and seas 
to 10 ft will be present west of about 123W through late tonight
into early Wed as the current synoptic pattern in place changes 
little. However, pulses of fresh to strong winds are likely 
along the ITCZ tonight through Wed afternoon. A cold front is 
expected to approach the far northwest corner of the area on Wed,
preceded by fresh to strong southerly winds, and also to be 
preceded by the leading edge of a new set of northwest swell. A 
reinforcing cold front will follow on Fri when the previously 
mentioned high pressure shifts to Baja California adjacent 
waters, thus creating a tighter pressure gradient and supporting 
fresh to strong winds north of 28N and very rough seas to near 23
ft that will propagate eastward near 30N through the weekend.

$$
Aguirre