921 AXPZ20 KNHC 172151 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Dec 17 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2151 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong to near gale-force gap winds ongoing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region are expected to reach gale-force by Wed night and continue through late Sat night. A a cold front is forecast to move across the Gulf of Mexico tightening the pressure gradient. Please, see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N78W to 06N93W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and extends beyond 07N 140W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 03N to 07N between 107W and 121W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure of 1027 mb centered west of Baja California Norte near 32N127W. A ridge extends from the high east-southeastward across the Baja Peninsula. The related gradient is allowing for generally moderate to fresh northwest to north winds to continue across the waters north of Cabo San Lazaro, along with 5 to 7 ft seas in northwest swell. Mainly gentle north to northeast winds with seas of 5 to 7 ft in northwest swell are over the waters from Cabo San Lazaro to the Revillagigedo Islands. In the Gulf of California, winds are moderate to fresh in speeds and northwest in direction with seas 2 to 4 ft. Strong to near gale- force northerly winds continue to affect the region of Tehuantepec along with seas to 8 ft. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in mixed swell prevail across the southwestern Mexican offshore zones. For the forecast, high pressure remains across the offshore waters while a trough meanders between the southern Gulf of California and western Mexico. The pressure gradient between these features will continue to support pulsing moderate to fresh northwest to north winds N of Cabo San Lazaro through late tonight. New northwest swell is forecast to approach Punta Eugenia late tonight and subside N of Cabo San Lazaro Thu morning. Fresh to strong northwest winds in the central Gulf of California will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds Wed night, and be at mostly moderate speeds starting on Thu. While, gentle or weaker winds will prevail Sun. Strong to near gale- force gap winds ongoing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region are expected to reach gale-force by Wed night and continue through late Sat night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh northeast winds are pulsing to strong speeds in the Gulf of Papagayo region supported by a relatively tight gradient between high pressure that is present over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and over northern Central America, and a trough that is analyzed in the western Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are pulsing in the Gulf of Panama, where seas remain in the 3 to 5 ft range. Elsewhere south of the monsoon trough and between Ecuador and the Galapagos, southerly winds are light to gentle and seas are to 5 ft in a south to southwest swell. For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast winds will continue to pulse in the Papagayo region through the next few days along with moderate seas. Moderate northerly winds pulsing to fresh speeds will prevail in the Gulf of Panama through Sun. Gentle to moderate winds between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will continue through Fri, then mainly gentle winds will prevail. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1027 mb is analyzed near 32N127W. A ridge extends southeastward from this high across the subtropical waters, which is supporting moderate to fresh northeast winds west of the Baja Peninsula offshores along with seas to around 8 ft reaching to near 120W. The gradient between the ridge and relatively lower pressure found to its south is sustaining fresh to strong trades over the tropical waters west of about 123W, where seas are 8 to 12 ft. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere south of the ITCZ and north of the ITCZ east of 115W. For the forecast, mostly fresh northeast to east winds and seas to 10 ft will be present west of about 123W through late tonight into early Wed as the current synoptic pattern in place changes little. However, pulses of fresh to strong winds are likely along the ITCZ tonight through Wed afternoon. A cold front is expected to approach the far northwest corner of the area on Wed, preceded by fresh to strong southerly winds, and also to be preceded by the leading edge of a new set of northwest swell. A reinforcing cold front will follow on Fri when the previously mentioned high pressure shifts to Baja California adjacent waters, thus creating a tighter pressure gradient and supporting fresh to strong winds north of 28N and very rough seas to near 23 ft that will propagate eastward near 30N through the weekend. $$ KRV