000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171042 CCA
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Dec 17 2024

Corrected satellite imagery valid time

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N84W to 07N90W to 
06N100W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 07N112W to 07N125W 
to 06N135W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is seen 
within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 115W and 118W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1026 mb centered west of Baja California Norte 
near 31N129W. A ridge extends from the high east-southeastward 
across the Baja Peninsula. The related gradient is allowing for 
generally moderate to fresh northwest to north winds to continue 
across the waters north of Cabo San Lazaro, along with 6 to 8 ft 
seas in northwest swell. Gentle to moderate north to northeast 
winds with seas of 5 to 7 ft in northwest swell are over the 
waters from Cabo San Lazaro to the Revillagigedo Islands In the 
Gulf of California, winds are moderate to fresh in speeds and 
northwest in direction, except for strong winds in the central 
gulf where seas are to 6 ft. Strong to near gale-force northerly
winds continue to affect the region of Tehuantepec along with 
seas to 8 ft. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in mixed 
swell prevail across the southwestern Mexican offshore zones.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the
aforementioned high pressure and a trough that is meandering 
between the Gulf of California and western Mexico will continue 
to support pulsing moderate to fresh northwest to north winds N 
of Cabo San Lazaro through late Tue night. Northwest swell will 
continue to propagate across the remainder Baja California Sur 
offshore waters before subsiding to less than 8 ft by late Tue 
morning. New northwest swell is forecast to approach Punta 
Eugenia Tue night and subside N of Cabo San Lazaro Thu morning. 
Fresh to strong northwest winds in the central Gulf of 
California will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds this 
afternoon, and be at mostly moderate speeds starting on Thu. 
Strong to near gale- force gap winds ongoing in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec region are expected to reach gale-force by Thu 
morning and continue through late Sat night. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh northeast winds are pulsing to strong speeds in the 
Gulf of Papagayo region supported by a relatively tight
gradient between high pressure that is present over the 
northwestern Caribbean Sea and over northern Central America, and
a trough that is analyzed in the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
Moderate to fresh northerly winds are pulsing in the Gulf of 
Panama, where seas remain in the 3 to 5 ft range. Elsewhere south
of the monsoon trough and between Ecuador and the Galapagos, 
winds are light to gentle and seas are 4 to 6 ft in south to 
southwest swell there, except north of the Galapagos Islands 
where northerly swell is present.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast winds will continue 
to pulse in the Papagayo region through the next few days along
with moderate seas. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will 
prevail in the Gulf of Panama through Fri. Gentle to moderate 
southerly winds between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will 
continue through Fri, then be at gentle speeds afterward. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1026 mb is analyzed near 31N129W. A ridge 
extends southeastward from this high across the subtropical 
waters, which is supporting moderate to fresh northeast winds 
west of the Baja Peninsula offshores along with rough seas to 
around 9 ft reaching to near 120W. The gradient between the 
ridge and relatively lower pressure found to its south is 
sustaining fresh to strong trades over the tropical waters west 
of about 119W, where seas are 8 to 11 ft. Moderate to fresh 
trades are elsewhere south of the ITCZ and north of the ITCZ
and east of about 115W. 

For the forecast, mostly fresh northeast to east winds and seas 
to 10 ft will be present west of about 125W through late 
tonight into early Wed as the current synoptic pattern in place 
changes little. A cold front is expected to approach the far 
northwest corner of the area on Wed, preceded by fresh to strong 
southerly winds, and also to be preceded by the leading edge of 
a new set of northwest swell. A reinforcing cold front will 
follow on Fri when the previously mentioned high pressure shifts 
to Baja California adjacent waters, thus creating a tighter 
pressure gradient and supporting fresh to strong winds north of 
29N and very rough seas to near 23 ft that will propagate 
eastward near 30N during the weekend.

$$
Aguirre