000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170945 CCA
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Dec 17 2024

Corrected forecast for Offshore Waters Within 250 nm of Mexico

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0315 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N84W to 07N90W to 06N98W,
where it transitions to the ITCZ to 07N110W to 07N120W to 
06N130W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm
north of the ITCZ between 112W and 115W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...Corrected

High pressure of 1024 mb centered west of the Baja California 
Norte near 29N129W. A ridge extends from the high east-
southeastward across the Baja Peninsula. The related gradient is 
allowing for generally moderate to fresh northwest to north 
winds to continue across the waters north of Cabo San Lazaro, 
along with 6 to 8 ft seas in northwest swell. Gentle to moderate
north to northeast winds with seas of 5 to 7 ft in northwest
swell are over the waters from Cabo San Lazaro to the Revillagigedo
Islands In the Gulf of California, winds are moderate to fresh 
from the NW, except for strong winds in the central gulf where 
seas are to 6 ft. Strong to near gale-force northerly winds 
continue to affect the region of Tehuantepec along with rough 
seas to 8 ft. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in mixed 
swell prevail across the southwestern Mexican offshore zones.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the
aforementioned high pressure and a trough that is meandering 
between the Gulf of California and western Mexico will continue 
to support pulsing moderate to fresh northwest to north winds N 
of Cabo San Lazaro through late Tue night. Northwest swell will 
continue to propagate across the remainder Baja California Sur 
offshore waters before subsiding to less than 8 ft by late Tue 
morning. New NW swell is forecast to approach Punta Eugenia Tue 
night and subside N of Cabo San Lazaro Thu morning. Fresh to 
strong northwest winds in the central Gulf of California will 
diminish to moderate to fresh speeds early Thu, and to gentle to 
moderate Tue. Looking ahead, a gap wind event in the Tehuantepec 
region is expected by the middle of the week, with the potential 
for developing gale-force winds by Thu morning, continuing 
through Sat morning. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh NE winds are pulsing to strong at night across the 
Papagayo region being forced by a high pressure ridge over the NW
Caribbean. Moderate north winds are also pulsing in the Gulf of 
Panama, where seas remain in the 3-4 ft range. Elsewhere south
of the monsoon trough, and between Ecuador and the Galapagos, 
winds are light to gentle and seas moderate to 6 ft in SW swell, 
except north of the Galapagos where there is northerly swell.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast winds will continue 
to pulse in the Papagayo region through the rest of the week 
along with moderate seas. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will 
prevail in the Gulf of Panama through Fri. Gentle to moderate 
winds between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will continue 
through Fri, then be at gentle speeds afterward. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1024 mb high is analyzed near 29N129W. A ridge 
extends southeastward from this high across the subtropical 
waters, which is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds west of 
the Baja Peninsula offshores along with rough seas to around 
9 ft reaching to near 120W. The ridge is also forcing an area of
fresh to strong trades in the tropical waters W of 115W where 
seas are 8 to 11 ft. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere 
south of the ITCZ and north of the ITCZ E of 115W. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and 
rough seas to 10 ft will continue west of about 125W through 
Tue as the high pressure meanders between adjacent waters of 
southern California and Baja California Norte. Winds will also 
diminish to fresh speeds over the tropical waters by Wed, ahead 
of an approaching frontal boundary. A new set of northwest swell
will accompany this front and is forecast to enter the NW waters
Wed evening. A reinforcing front will follow on Fri when the
previously mentioned high pressure shifts to Baja California 
adjacent waters, thus creating a tighter pressure gradient and 
supporting fresh to strong winds north of 29N and very rough 
seas to near 24 ft that will propagate eastward near 30N during 
the weekend.

$$
Aguirre