000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152115
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Dec 15 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 05N100W. The ITCZ then
continues from 05N100W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered showers are
noted along the ITCZ mainly W of 132W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A 1029 mb high pressure is building across the regional waters, 
leading to a freshening in winds. Recent satellite scatterometer 
data depicts moderate to fresh northerly winds across the Baja 
waters north of 25N, becoming moderate N to NE winds farther 
south through the Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate northerly winds
are occurring through the central and southern portions of the 
Gulf of California. Seas in the Gulf of California have built to 
3 to 5 ft. Seas of 6 to 8 ft prevail across the waters from Punta
Eugenia to the Revillagigedo Islands, while a NW swell entering 
the regional waters is producing seas of 8 to 11 ft north of 
Punta Eugenia. The Gale Warning for the Tehuantepec region has 
been allowed to expire, as latest scatterometer data near the 
area depicted moderate to fresh winds. Rough seas are still 
prevailing across this region. Farther south and offshore of 
southwestern Mexico, light to gentle winds and moderate seas 
prevail. 

For the forecast, high pressure offshore of southern California 
will build modestly across the waters west of Cabo Corrientes 
through Mon. A series of cold fronts will sweep eastward across 
the Pacific waters to the N of the region throughout the week, 
while troughing prevails over NW Mexico. The pressure gradient 
between the ridge and the trough will continue to support fresh 
NW winds in the Gulf of California and the offshore waters of 
Baja into Tue morning. Strong winds are expected surrounding 
Punta Eugenia and in the central Gulf of California through 
tonight as the high pressure shifts S of 30N. NW swell entering 
the Baja Norte waters will continue to propagate southward 
through late Mon, producing seas 9 to 11 ft across the Baja Norte
waters through tonight, and 7 to 10 ft seas across the remaining
Baja waters. Seas will subside to less than 8 ft by Tue, before 
the next NW swell moves into the area waters early Wed. For the 
Tehuantepec region, N winds will pulse to strong at night across 
the area through the end of next week, with significant winds and
seas generally remaining N of 13N. Looking ahead, there is a 
chance for gales to return to the Tehuantepec region Thu night as
a new frontal system moves southward into the Gulf of Mexico.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh NE winds are occurring across the Papagayo region as a 
strong high pressure ridge prevails over the southeastern United 
States and extends into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Seas to
7 ft are likely in this area. Moderate to fresh N winds are 
occurring across the Gulf of Panama and extend southward to 04N.
Elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate N to 
NE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail. South of the monsoon 
trough, gentle to moderate S to SW winds and moderate seas of 4 
to 6 ft are noted.

For the forecast, fresh NE winds are expected to pulse across 
the Papagayo region through at least the middle of next week. 
Moderate N winds are expected to pulse to fresh in the Gulf of 
Panama each night through the middle of next week as low pressure
persists near the coast of Colombia. Otherwise, gentle to 
moderate S to SW winds and moderate seas will prevail south of 
the monsoon trough, with gentle winds and slight seas occurring 
north of the trough, away from the gap winds. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1029 mb high pressure is north of the front and offshore of 
southern California. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are noted N
of 22N and W of 120W, where seas are 8 to 12 ft in new NW swell 
N of 25N and 8 to 9 ft elsewhere to 22N. South of the ridge, 
between 22N and the ITCZ, fresh to strong NE trade winds prevail
W of 120W, while moderate N to NE winds are between 110W and 
120W. Seas there are 8 to 10 ft in NW swell, except to around 11
ft W of 132W in the area of strongest trades. South of the ITCZ,
moderate SE winds prevail, with seas of 6 to 8 ft in mixed 
swell.

For the forecast, the high pressure ridge will continue from the
NE waters west and southwestward through Tue to maintain a zone 
of fresh to strong trade winds between the ITCZ and 20N. Seas of
8 to 10 ft will generally prevail across the trade wind zone, 
except to 11 or 12 ft W of 125W in the area of strongest trades. 
Another round of NW swell is expected to enter the NW waters Mon
night and spread to the waters E of 120W by Wed. High pressure 
will weaken Tue and Wed, ahead of an approaching strong frontal 
system. This front is expected to bring large NW swell into the 
northwestern waters late Wed, and strong S to SW winds north of 
25N and west of 132W Wed night into Thu. Farther east, moderate 
trade winds will continue north of the ITCZ to around 15N between
105W and 120W through the middle of the week. 

$$
ERA