000 AXPZ20 KNHC 151524 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Dec 15 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong ridge of high pressure extending from the eastern U.S. to the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and eastern Mexico is supporting strong to gale force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec this morning, with gales occurring north of 15N. Peak seas near 11 ft are likely occurring in the area of strongest winds. This ridge is expected to weaken very slowly today through the early part of the week, which will prompt a slow weakening of this northerly gap wind flow across Tehuantepec. Winds are expected to diminish below gale force later this morning, then expect N winds to pulse to strong at night across the Gulf region through the end of next week, with significant winds and seas generally remaining N of 13N. Looking ahead, there is a chance for gales to return to the Tehuantepec region Thu night as a new frontal system moves southward into the Gulf of Mexico. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 05N103W. The ITCZ then continues from 05N103W to beyond 07N140W. No significant convection is noted at this time. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information regarding the Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A 1030 mb high pressure is building across the regional waters today, leading to a freshening in winds. Recent satellite scatterometer winds depicted moderate to fresh northerly winds across the Baja waters north of Cabo San Lazaro becoming moderate N to NE winds farther south through the Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are assumed to be occurring through the central and southern portions of the Gulf of California. Seas in the Gulf of California have built to 3 to 5 ft. Seas of 6 to 8 ft prevail across the waters from Punta Eugenia to the Revillagigedo Islands, while new NW swell entering the regional waters is producing seas 8 to 11 ft north of Punta Eugenia. Farther south and offshore of southwestern Mexico, light to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, away from gale force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, high pressure offshore of southern California will build modestly across the waters west of Cabo Corrientes through Mon. A series of cold fronts will sweep eastward across the Pacific waters to the north of the region throughout the upcoming week, while troughing prevails over northwestern Mexico. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the trough over Mexico will to support fresh N-NW winds through the Gulf of California today through Mon. Fresh winds offshore of Baja will continue into Tue morning. Strong winds are expected surrounding Punta Eugenia and in the central Gulf of California Sun afternoon and night as the high pressure shifts south of 30N. NW swell entering the Baja Norte waters will continue to propagate southward through late Mon, producing seas 9 to 11 ft across the Baja Norte waters through tonight, and building 7 to 10 ft seas across the remaining Baja waters. Seas will subside to less than 8 ft by Tue, before the next NW swell moves into the area waters early Wed. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh NE winds are occurring across the Papagayo region as a strong high pressure ridge prevails over the southeastern United States and extends into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Seas 6 to 7 ft are likely in this area. Moderate to fresh N winds are occurring across the Gulf of Panama and extend southward to 06N. Elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, away from the pulsing gap winds, gentle to moderate N to NE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail. South of the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate S to SW winds and moderate seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds are expected across the Papagayo region through this morning. Winds will then diminish during the next few days, but pulse to fresh speeds each night through at least the middle of next week. Moderate N winds are expected to pulse to fresh in the Gulf of Panama each night through the middle of next week as low pressure persists near the coast of Colombia. Otherwise, gentle to moderate S to SW winds and moderate seas will prevail south of the monsoon trough, with gentle winds and slight seas occurring north of the trough, away from the gap winds. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1030 mb high pressure is north of the front and offshore of southern California. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are noted N of 22N and W of 120W, where seas are 9 to 12 ft in new NW swell N of 25N and 8 to 9 ft elsewhere to 22N. South of the ridge, between 22N and the ITCZ, fresh NE trade winds prevail W of 120W, while moderate N to NE winds are between 110W and 120W. Seas there are 8 to 10 ft in NW swell, except to around 11 ft W of 132W in the area of strongest trades. South of the ITCZ, moderate SE winds prevail, with seas of 6 to 8 ft in mixed swell. For the forecast, a modest high pressure ridge will continue from the NE waters west and southwestward through Tue to maintain a zone of fresh to occasionally strong trade winds between the ITCZ and 20N. Seas of 8 to 10 ft will generally prevail across the trade wind zone, except to 11 or 12 ft W of 125W in the area of strongest trades. New NW swell entering the northern waters tonight will dominate the waters east of 130W through Mon. Another round of NW swell is expected to enter the NW waters Mon night and spread to the waters E of 120W by Wed. High pressure will weaken Tue and Wed, ahead of an approaching strong frontal system. This front is expected to bring large NW swell into the northwestern waters late Wed, and strong S to SW winds north of 25N and west of 132W Wed night into Thu. Farther east, moderate trade winds will continue north of the ITCZ to around 15N between 105W and 120W through the middle of the week. $$ ERA