000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150933
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Dec 15 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong ridge of high pressure
extending from the eastern U.S. to the southwestern Gulf of 
Mexico and eastern Mexico is supporting strong to gale force 
winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight, with gales occurring 
north of 14.5N. Peak seas near 11 ft are likely occurring in the 
area of strongest winds. This ridge is expected to weaken very 
slowly Sun through the early part of the week, which will prompt 
a slow weakening of this northerly gap wind flow across 
Tehuantepec. Winds are expected to diminish below gale force Sun
morning, then expect N winds to pulse to strong at night across 
the Gulf region through the end of next week, with significant 
winds and seas generally remaining N of 13N. Looking ahead, there
is a chance for gales to return to Tehuantepec Thu night as a 
new frontal system moves southward into the Gulf of Mexico.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N74W to 08.5N84W to 
04.5N92W. The ITCZ then continues from 04.5N92W to 05.5N110W to 
beyond 06.5N140W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring 
from 07N to 12N west of 132W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information
regarding the Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

A weak and ill defined cold front is moving into the Baja Norte
waters tonight, and extends from Baja Norte to near 29N120W. 1030
mb high pressure behind the front has begun to build across the 
regional waters tonight, leading to a freshening in winds. Recent
satellite scatterometer winds showed moderate to locally fresh 
northerly winds across the Baja waters north of Cabo San Lazaro 
becoming moderate N to NE winds farther south through the 
Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are
assumed to be occurring through the central and southern portions
of the Gulf of California. Seas in the Gulf of California have 
built to 3 to 5 ft. Seas of 6 to 8 ft prevail across the waters 
from Punta Eugenia to the Revillagigedo Islands, while new NW 
swell entering the regional waters tonight is producing seas 8 to
10 ft north of Punta Eugenia. Farther south and offshore of 
southwestern Mexico, light to gentle winds and moderate seas 
prevail. 

For the forecast, away from gale force winds in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, the approaching front will dissipate today and allow
high pressure offshore of southern California to build modestly 
across the waters west of Cabo Corrientes through Mon. A series 
of cold fronts will sweep eastward across the Pacific waters to 
the north of the region throughout the upcoming week, while 
troughing prevails over northwestern Mexico. The pressure 
gradient between the ridge and the trough over Mexico will to 
support fresh N-NW winds through the Gulf of California today 
through Mon. Fresh winds offshore of Baja will continue into Tue 
morning. Locally strong winds are expected surrounding Punta 
Eugenia and in the central Gulf of California Sun afternoon and 
night as the high pressure shifts south of 30N. NW swell entering
the Baja Norte waters tonight will propagate southward through
late Mon, producing seas 9 to 11 ft across the Baja Norte waters
through Sun night, and building 7 to 10 ft across the remaining 
Baja waters today and tonight. Seas will subside to less than 8 
ft by Tue, before the next NW swell moves into the area waters 
early Wed.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh NE winds are occurring across the Papagayo region as a 
strong high pressure ridge prevails over the southeastern United 
States and extends into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Seas 6 
to 7 ft are likely in this area. Moderate to locally fresh N 
winds are occurring across the Gulf of Panama and extend
southwardto 06N. Elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, away 
from the pulsing gap winds, gentle to moderate N to NE winds and 
seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail. South of the monsoon trough, gentle to
moderate S to SW winds and moderate seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted.


For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds are expected across 
the Papagayo region through this morning. Winds will then
diminish during the next few days, but pulse to fresh speeds 
each night Sun night through at least the middle of next week. 
Moderate N winds are expected to pulse to fresh in the Gulf of 
Panama each night through the middle of next week as low pressure
persists near the coast of Colombia. Otherwise, gentle to 
moderate S to SW winds and moderate seas will prevail south of 
the monsoon trough, with gentle winds and slight seas occurring 
north of the trough, away from the gap winds. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weak cold front can be seen in satellite imagery moving into 
the northern waters tonight, extending from Baja California 
Norte to 29N120W to 28N127W. 1030 mb high pressure is north of 
the front and offshore of southern California. The pressure 
gradient south of the front is producing gentle to moderate NE to
E winds to 22N and W of 120W, where seas are 9 to 12 ft in new 
NW swell N of 26N and 8 to 9 ft elsewhere to 22N. South of the 
ridge, between 22N and the ITCZ, fresh NE trade winds prevail W 
of 120W, while moderate N to NE winds are between 110W and 120W. 
Seas there are 8 to 10 ft in NW swell, except to around 11 ft W 
of 132W in the area of strongest trades. South of the ITCZ, 
moderate SE winds prevail, with seas of 6 to 8 ft in mixed swell.

For the forecast, a modest high pressure ridge will continue from
the NE waters west and southwestward through Tue to maintain a 
zone of fresh to occasionally strong trade winds between the ITCZ
and 20N. Seas of 8 to 10 ft will generally prevail across the
trade wind zone, except to 11 or 12 ft W of 125W in the area of
strongest trades. New NW swell entering the northern waters
tonight will dominate the waters east of 130W through Mon.
Another round of NW swell is expected to enter the NW waters Mon
night and spread to the waters E of 120W by Wed. High pressure 
will weaken Tue and Wed, ahead of an approaching strong frontal 
system. This front is expected to bring large NW swell into the 
northwestern waters late Wed, and strong S to SW winds north of 
25N and west of 132W Wed night into Thu. Farther east, moderate 
trade winds will continue north of the ITCZ to around 15N between
105W and 120W through the middle of the week. 

$$
Stripling